الأحد، سبتمبر 13، 2009

Always Wait For a Signal

You may have your own personal opinions and beliefs on where a stick
is likely to head, but before you pull the trigger and make the trade
make sure that you actually have a technical signal on the position.
Waiting will help you in many ways.
1. Stocks do not care about your opinions
Stocks do not care about what you believe will happen. They do not
believe on how logical your belief is or how much sense it makes. In
the end a stock will always do what it is going to do, weather that be
trending up, down, or sideways.
If the technical signals you are getting do not match what you believe
will happen with a company, it is better to go with the technicals.
2. Signals are Proven
Signals such as breakouts, bounces off of support and resistance, and
trends are proven to be profitable. Your thoughts about what will
happen in the market are not. It is hard to back test your fundamental
beliefs about a company.
On the other hand it is much easier to back test technical signals and
see what would have happened had you followed strict rules for trading
in the past.
3. What Common Sense
In the short term the stock market is controlled by emotions. People
do not think rationally, they are thinking "how can I turn my money
into a lot more money." Because of this things like trends and
breakout are very likely to occur even when they argue with
fundamental data.
I'm not saying that fundamental analysis is a bad thing, but unless
you are willing to hold your position for a long time I wouldn't make
it the base of your trading.

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