الخميس، أكتوبر 29، 2009
الأحد، أكتوبر 25، 2009
LEE GETTESS FOCUSES ON CONTROLLING RISK
However, it wasn't always that way. Gettess received his introduction to the commodity futures markets via a telephone call
from a broker. "He told me how Omar Sharif had made $50 million in the sugar market, with a $50,000 account,” Gettess said.
The broker said the same pattern that occurred in sugar and made Sharif that bundle was occurring again.
"So I gave him $10,000 and three weeks later, he gave me $3,000 back," Gettess said. "But I realized if I could lose the money
that fast, I could make the money that fast," he added. He launched into a study of the futures markets.
At the time, Gettess had a computer background. "I tried to read everything I could get my hands on ... and the technical side
was more appealing to me: I guess I'm more of a left-brain person," he explained.
He "dabbled" in trading in the mid-'80s, but didn't begin trading, from off the floor, full time until Oct. 12, 1987-just days
before the stock market crashed. "The only thing I knew how to trade was the S&Ps," he said. However, Gettess escaped
relatively unscathed from the crash. "I was on the wrong side of the market ... I lost $1,500 ... But, you can take a loss and be
absolutely wrong and can congratulate yourself for doing the right thing," he said referring to getting out of the trade at the right
rime and risk control. "I was able to take a $1,500 loss--that was a good trade," he added.
"Back then everyone told me commodities were too risky and the ones to definitely stay away from were the S&Ps and pork
bellies ... so that’s what I decided to trade. You want to be where the action is ... you want to be where the profit potential is ...
but a trader's job is to control risk,” he explained.
Gettess has used his computer background to develop over a hundred systems over the years, including one about 10 years ago
called the Volpat Trading System, which was picked by Futures Truth as "one of the top 10 trading systems of all times.”
'The acronym "Volpat”' stands for volatility and pattern recognition. "Volatility-in that you need an active market. If a
market isn’t moving, you can’t make any money," Gettess said.
The patterns are "short-term stuff .. that are objective enough that you can tell a computer to look for them ... you can test all
kinds of combinations of things," he said. "One of the patterns-a big outside day, closing on the lows ... most market lore says
this is very bearish. What I found is if the market starts up the next day you probably want to buy it. It was observational-this
should be really ugly, but I'm looking at the market and it doesn't look so ugly," he explained as the thought process behind
picking out par- term for computer testing.
Gettess typically puts on trades that last from one to three days and he favors markets with liquidity. "Lumber and orange
juice don't interest me too much," he said referring to two thinly traded markets.
"My favorite market today is the bond market. It is so big and so liquid I can move any type of size with good execution,”
Gettess said. Also, "I can control risk better there than in the S&P pit,” he added.
Everything comes back to risk for Gettess. "The only thing a trader can control is risk. If you go into a market and you say, 'I
don't want to lose more than $1,000 on a trade'...there may be overnight gaps and slippage, but you can be pretty sure you won't
lose more than $1,000 on a trade," he explained.
"I know how much I'm willing to risk, but I have no idea how much the market is willing to let me take out of it-if all the
market is going to give you is $500, you have to take it," Gettess added.
"My whole focus is that you've got to control the risk ... that's what all the top traders do," he concluded. However, while
Gettess uses protective stops for his position, he doesn't always have a stop-loss on a trade. "I follow the markets during the
course of a day and in front of a news report I won't put my stop in-because the markets can go nuts for a brief period of time
after the news ... and after that I can decide if I still want to be in,” he said.
However, on the use of protective stops he cautioned, "Risk (control) doesn't mean using outrageously tight stops-a floor
trader can sneeze and the market moves $100. My research indicates that you want to give the market a fair amount of room for
higher chance of success.”
In terms of advice for beginning traders, Gettess warns, "Don't have unrealistic expectations.”
“People ask me what’s the best way to trade-that's an impossible question. I can't tell you what’s going to suit you,” Gettess
said, implying that each trader needs to find a trading method that fits his or her particular personality.
"It's the ultimate job as far as I'm concerned. When I was working for General Motors, they had a great benefit plan, and
everyone told me this was a great, secure company to work for. But, then one morning, I woke up and I didn't work for them
anymore even though they liked me and gave me good reviews. It made me realize that security is based on self- reliance,"
Gettess finished.
CAFFEINATED MARKET
Many times you’ll see the market just start moving strongly. Typically you
see some long candles and a series of them. When this happens I refer to this
phenomena as the market is “Going For It”. Sometimes you’ll see even more
dramatic candles that are really “Shooting” up (or down), and these I refer to
as “Shooting”. I often refer to these phenomena as “Caffeinated” because to
me it seems like the market drank some coffee and woke up after a period of
slower movement. Take a look at these charts to see what I mean.
Notice that often these dramatic moves are temporarily paused with a
stagnation, and (as on the chart on the left) the stagnation can be a good time
to exit (joyfully taking your profits). The chart on the right is “Shooting”.
This chart is still what I would call “Going For It”, though it is certainly less
dramatic. Notice that it starts rounding off loosing steam near the top. This
one is certainly a nice rounded top.
You’ll often be in a trade when all of a sudden, without warning, it just shoots
up (or down). It is certainly a pleasant feeling to have made a few hundred
dollars before having a chance to blink your eyes (depending on how many
lots you trade), I personally love it when it happens (and it happens
often). Usually “Shoots” happen in the direction of the prevalent trend after
some brief pauses in the market.
Here is a shoot that happened for no apparent reason (no FAs were being
released, and this is at about 21:15 EST when nothing “should” be
happening. There was downwards moving consolidation, then all of a sudden
the market started “going for it” breaking through the consolidation
trendline. Then the market made a “Shoot” which is usually a good signal to
enter into a trade (to hopefully catch the Caffeinated momentum). The
following candle then proceeded to shoot up 20 pips in less than 60
seconds! Earlier in this eBook I mentioned that it is a good idea to have a
laptop computer dedicated to trading (so you can monitor the charts), and this
is one of those times that proves having such a computer is a good idea as
otherwise there is no way you would have caught this unexpected event.
I’m not talking about “Shoots” or “Going For It” that results from
Fundamental Announcements (which obviously precipitate them regularly but
unpredictably). Many times these seem to happen for no apparent reason (I’m
not aware of any news that might have caused it, but news could certainly
make it happen too), and often it seems to have no basis other than a strong
market sentiment. Perhaps these moves happen due to the market makers
wanting the market to move (because they profit from people trading, and
they are encouraged to do so when the market is moving rather than
stagnant). Often times (other than around expected FA or unexpected news
like a terrorist bombing – I lost a trade recently due to market surprise
resulting from the London bombings) there seems to be no reason for the
strong moves, but regardless of what the actual reason for them is you only
care that they happen because you can profit from them.
Sometimes when a “Shoot” occurs it just jumps a significant amount of pips,
but most often it happens gradually but quickly during the minute that the
candle is being formed. If you’ve been watching a reversal or a stagnation
and then see it beginning to “Shoot” in the direction of the prevalent trend
then you might want to quickly enter a trade to catch a ride on the “Shoot”
while the market is “Going For It” (earlier I explained the importance of being
prepared to enter a trade immediately, and this is one of the times that being
quick on the trigger is good to catch it early
الثلاثاء، سبتمبر 29، 2009
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[FXMove] TOS Performance Report - September 29th 2009
| |
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TOS Performance Report*
Date: 2009-09-29
|
| % | $ | Profitable Trades | Profitable % | Number of Trades | |
| Index Performance P/L | -0.43% | ($432.93) | 12 | 50% | 24 | |
| Cumulative since Sept 01, 2009 | 16.41% | $16,408.40 | 267 | 74% | 359 | |
| New Account Value | 116.41% | $116,408.40 | Annual Performance | 206.42% | ||
|
| ||||||
| SIGNAL PERFORMANCE REPORT | 9/29/2009 | Trade Size per pair | $166,666.67 | |||
| Initial Account | $100,000.00 | Various Pair Tradable | 6 | Leverage Ratio | 10 | |
|
| ||||||
| Currency Pair | P/L (in $) per Trade | Initial Action | Closing Action | Price | Trading Date | Trade Duration |
| ||||||
| EUR-JPY | $79.58 | Sell Short |
| 130.814 | 9/28/09 16:00 | 9:00:00 |
|
| Buy to Cover | 130.623 | 9/29/09 1:00 | |||
|
| 0.191 |
| ||||
| ($366.67) | Sell Short |
| 130.725 | 9/29/09 1:00 | 8:00:00 | |
|
| Buy to Cover | 131.605 | 9/29/09 9:00 | |||
|
| -0.880 |
| ||||
| $123.33 | Sell Short |
| 131.586 | 9/29/09 9:00 | 1:00:00 | |
|
| Buy to Cover | 131.290 | 9/29/09 10:00 | |||
|
| 0.296 |
| ||||
| ($91.25) | Sell Short |
| 131.338 | 9/29/09 10:00 | 3:00:00 | |
|
| Buy to Cover | 131.557 | 9/29/09 13:00 | |||
|
| -0.219 |
| ||||
| $75.42 | Buy |
| 131.557 | 9/29/09 13:00 | 3:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 131.738 | 9/29/09 16:00 | |||
|
| 0.181 |
| ||||
| ($370.83) | Buy |
| 131.648 | 9/29/09 14:00 | 2:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 130.758 | 9/29/09 16:00 | |||
|
| -0.890 |
| ||||
| $75.00 | Buy |
| 130.780 | 9/29/09 16:00 | 1:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 130.960 | 9/29/09 17:00 | |||
|
| 0.180 |
| ||||
| $141.25 | Buy |
| 130.900 | 9/29/09 17:00 | 2:00:29 | |
|
| Sell | 131.239 | 9/29/09 19:00 | |||
|
| 0.339 |
| ||||
| $177.08 | Buy |
| 130.945 | 9/29/09 19:00 | 3:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 131.370 | 9/29/09 22:00 | |||
|
| 0.425 |
| ||||
| GBP=USD | ($198.75) | Sell Short |
| 1.58418 | 9/28/09 22:00 | 11:00:00 |
|
| Buy to Cover | 1.58895 | 9/29/09 9:00 | |||
|
| -0.00477 |
| ||||
| $157.08 | Buy |
| 1.58895 | 9/29/09 9:00 | 2:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 1.59272 | 9/29/09 11:00 | |||
|
| 0.00377 |
| ||||
| $127.50 | Buy |
| 1.59163 | 9/29/09 11:00 | 2:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 1.59469 | 9/29/09 13:00 | |||
|
| 0.00306 |
| ||||
| $101.67 | Buy |
| 1.59343 | 9/29/09 13:00 | 1:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 1.59587 | 9/29/09 14:00 | |||
|
| 0.00244 |
| ||||
| ($412.50) | Buy |
| 1.59383 | 9/29/09 14:00 | 4:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 1.58393 | 9/29/09 18:00 | |||
|
| -0.00990 |
| ||||
| $380.00 | Buy |
| 1.58874 | 9/29/09 18:00 | 1:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 1.59786 | 9/29/09 19:00 | |||
|
| 0.00912 |
| ||||
| $102.92 | Buy |
| 1.59643 | 9/29/09 19:00 | 1:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 1.59890 | 9/29/09 20:00 | |||
|
| 0.00247 |
| ||||
| EUR-USD | ($375.00) | Sell Short |
| 1.45858 | 9/28/09 10:00 | 14:15:00 |
|
| Buy to Cover | 1.46758 | 9/29/09 0:15 | |||
|
| -0.00900 |
| ||||
| ($66.67) | Buy |
| 1.46130 | 9/29/09 1:15 | 1:00:00 | |
|
| Sell | 1.45970 | 9/29/09 2:15 | |||
|
| -0.00160 |
| ||||
| $123.33 | Sell Short |
| 1.45970 | 9/29/09 2:15 | 13:45:00 | |
|
| Buy to Cover | 1.45674 | 9/29/09 16:00 | |||
|
| 0.00296 |
| ||||
| EUR-GBP | $68.33 | Buy |
| 0.92098 | 9/28/09 23:15 | 1:15:00 |
|
| Sell | 0.92262 | 9/29/09 0:30 | |||
|
| 0.00164 |
| ||||
| ($49.58) | Buy |
| 0.92057 | 9/29/09 1:15 | 1:45:00 | |
|
| Sell | 0.91938 | 9/29/09 3:00 | |||
|
| -0.00119 |
| ||||
| $59.58 | Sell Short |
| 0.91938 | 9/29/09 3:00 | 9:45:00 | |
|
| Buy to Cover | 0.91795 | 9/29/09 12:45 | |||
|
| 0.00143 |
| ||||
| ($34.58) | Sell Short |
| 0.91881 | 9/29/09 14:30 | 2:45:00 | |
|
| Buy to Cover | 0.91964 | 9/29/09 17:15 | |||
|
| -0.00083 |
| ||||
| ($259.17) | Buy |
| 0.91964 | 9/29/09 17:15 | 1:15:00 | |
|
| Sell | 0.91342 | 9/29/09 18:30 | |||
|
| -0.00622 |
| ||||
| Total P/L | ($432.93) |
| ||||
| Profit Sharing | $0.00 | |||||
| Net P/L | ($432.93) | |||||
| Disclaimer on Market Opinions given by Obbertan SMBA Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information contained on our website or in any of our communications are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Obbertan SMBA will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss or profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. By using the services offered by Obbertan SMBA "Obbertan" or using its website, the user agrees that the author and any other entities associated with Obbertan SMBA shall not be held liable for any direct, indirect, consequential loss or any damages whatsoever arising from this usage, or the use of any information, signals, software, messages, manual, worksheet, instructions, alerts, directives and any other information contained in regard to its use and understanding. Use the website and the services offered by Obbertan at your own risk. Neither Guarantee of Performance, results nor any anticipated Return on Investment is offered at any time. Past performance is no Guarantee of future results and sending a trade opportunity signal to you or to your broker does not constitute management. Obbertan does not manage your account, you do and can always interrupt the signals by contacting us or your broker. | * Definitions: TOS means Trading Opportunity Signal Assumptions used to prepare this performance report: Total portfolio initial equity of 100,000 USD on September 1, 2009. Leverage ratio of 10 to 1 supplied by the Forex Broker for a maximum exposure of 1,000,000 USD. |
| Obbertan SMBA Head office: Representation office: |
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